Thrive or Survive: Look Into Golovkin-Geale

0
551

Gennady Golovkin was built on HBO’s “Boxing After Dark” and has become just that, bad. Golovkin has already passed the eye test now he will encounter a new style test versus Daniel Geale from historic Madison Square Garden in New York City broadcasted live on HBO Championship Boxing.  

Majority of talk inside the boxing world leading up to this matchup has been more about what’s next for “Triple G”. The round in which Golovkin stops Geale seems to be the only item up for debate. Does Geale have enough skill and sturdy enough chin to end the string of knockouts which currently stands at 16 in a row? To find out what these fighters are capable of let’s look back at what got them here.

In the last 23 months Gennady Golovkin’s stock has rose high enough to be perceived as the best middleweight in the world without having to slay a King to earn a rightful crown. That job was done by Miguel Cotto when he dominated former lineal champion Sergio Martinez in the same building seven weeks ago.
Most people assume Miguel Cotto will steer clear of the top guys at 160. That’s no shot at Cotto, who has faced top competition throughout his career. One can’t blame the Puerto Rican with big money fights on the table against Canelo Alvarez and a possible rematch with Floyd Mayweather.

After negotiations fell apart this spring with Julio Chavez Jr. a fight was planned with Andy Lee until Gennady’s father passed away forcing him to withdraw. Previous efforts to make a fight with Daniel Geale had failed, so it was a bit of a surprise when it finally became a reality. Instead of placing the bout in the Theater at MSG, K2 Promotions decided to give the “good boy” a crack at the big boy room.

Daniel Geale may represent the best fighter that Golovkin has faced thus far. Matthew Macklin was a legit fighter with style that was all wrong for facing GGG. So he decided to go with a game plan that saw him on the back foot outside his comfort level and it showed. Kassim Ouma has show that success is possible with the right type of style.
Daniel Geale is an active and accurate puncher who likes to throw hooks to the head and body. He poses some defensive skills with decent footwork and the ability to control distance, but I wouldn’t go as far to use the term “slick”.

He has good upper body movement when attacked, something he will surely need to be sharp with against the Golovkin. He keeps his guard high on the inside but at times is too bouncy on the outside, which could affect his stamina having to be on the move for a 12 full rounds.

Geale will need to be very active with combination punching both to the head and body. He can’t make the mistake of trading punches, or standing in front on the inside too long with the puncher like GGG.
Being first combined with activity will help distract GGG and scoring points on the judge’s scorecards to make up for his lack of power. Speaking of power Geale’s best chance to hurt GGG will likely be downstairs, which he has shown to be a very capable body puncher.
Barker vs. Geale is a good scout fight to watch to analyze both fighters. Barker had a ton of success behind the jab allowing him to land his fair share of heavy shots to the head and body throughout his fight with Geale.

Barker was also aggressive yet under control last August, Golovkin himself is known for aggression, power, and distance control on the way inside.

Despite being a sizable underdog, Daniel Geale does have a few things going for him heading in to Saturday nights HBO main event, mainly experience and success at the top levels of the middleweight division.
Felix Sturm may be past his prime but securing a victory in Germany is still a very difficult task. Two fights with fellow Australian Anthony Mundine and last August on HBO after a slow start, Geale stormed back dropping Barker with a left hand to the body. Those experiences should give Geale the confidence to stick to his game plan when the going gets tough.

When push comes to shove, without a jab and constant movement Daniel Geale will no doubt end up like the rest of them. Even with it he may still end up like the rest of them by getting knocked out or beat up.

I think Daniel can have success versus Golovkin and may improve on Kassim Ouma’s performance. For me the real question is, how long that success last? Will he be content using his feet and upper body to score on the outside?
Expect both men to spend the early minutes finding their range while they warm up a bit. Fireworks should soon follow as Golovkin applies pressure forcing Geale hand, that’s when will find out how slick the Australian is on the outside.

Daniel Geale’s awkward style may take Golovkin some time to figure out. Unless it’s to the body I just don’t see Geale having the power to stop GGG in his tracks. Sooner or later the good boy with bad intentions will land a fight changer, or change the momentum with a one-sided round.

Gennady will begin to land punishing shots to the head and body, causing Geale to slow down becoming live bait in blood filled waters. Geale’s movement may be the sole reason he can stay away and survive the final bell.

By night’s end Golovkin’s star will shine brighter, the paying customer will be very satisfied, but the cold reality of big names not wanting to share the ring may force him up to super middleweight in 2015.

My official prediction is Gennady Golovkin by Late Stoppage or Unanimous Decision.